Forecasting of Broiler Price
Abstract
The aim of this study was to forecast the price of broiler with the broiler price which farmers sold from all farms in Thailand collected 103 months by the Office of Agricultural Economics since January, 2007 to July, 2015. Two methods employed in forecasting the price of broiler were Box-Jenkins and exponential smoothing with an adaptive response rate of Trigg and Leach. The study results indicated Box-Jenkins was the suitable method for forecasting the price of broiler with the model of ARIMA(2,1,0) Keywords : Broiler, Box-Jenkins , exponential smoothing with an adaptive response rate of Trigg and LeachReferences
Thanawat Uttaphap. (2002). Broiler. Retrieved November 5, 2015, from http://www.school.net.th/library/create-
web/10000/science/10000-6377.html (in Thai)
Thai Broiler Association. (2015.) Farm Standard. Retrieved November 5, 2015, from http://www.
broilerassociation.or.th/index.php?p=farmstandard&lang=th (in Thai)
Office of Agricultural Economics. (2015). Price Broiler. Retrieved November 5, 2015, from http://www.oae.go.th
/download/price/monthlyprice/livestock/broiler.pdf (in Thai)
Bowerman, B. L. & O’Connell, R. T. (1993). Forecasting and Time Series: An Applied Approach. 3 rd ed.
California, Duxbury Press.
H.Brian Hwarng, H.T.Ang. (2001). A simple neural network for ARIMA (p.q) time series. Omega. 29, 319-333.
Trigg DW, Leach AG. (1967). Exponential smoothing with an adaptive response rate. Operational Research
Quarterly,18, 53-59.
web/10000/science/10000-6377.html (in Thai)
Thai Broiler Association. (2015.) Farm Standard. Retrieved November 5, 2015, from http://www.
broilerassociation.or.th/index.php?p=farmstandard&lang=th (in Thai)
Office of Agricultural Economics. (2015). Price Broiler. Retrieved November 5, 2015, from http://www.oae.go.th
/download/price/monthlyprice/livestock/broiler.pdf (in Thai)
Bowerman, B. L. & O’Connell, R. T. (1993). Forecasting and Time Series: An Applied Approach. 3 rd ed.
California, Duxbury Press.
H.Brian Hwarng, H.T.Ang. (2001). A simple neural network for ARIMA (p.q) time series. Omega. 29, 319-333.
Trigg DW, Leach AG. (1967). Exponential smoothing with an adaptive response rate. Operational Research
Quarterly,18, 53-59.
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Published
2016-04-07
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Section
Research Article
