Forecasting Crisis Peaks of Economics in Thailand Using Grey Model
Abstract
The objective of this research was to forecast economic crisis in Thailand using grey model. The data used in this study is the percentage of annual growth of gross domestic product and chain volume measures since 1991 to 2016, 26 years in total. GM(1,1) and Discrete Grey model (DGM) were applied and 4 criteria were used to test the performance of the model, namely mean relative error, absolute degree of incidence, variance ratio and small error probability. The result was indicated that DGM performs better than GM(1,1). Keywords : Grey model, annual growth of gross domestic product and chain volume measures, GM(1,1), DGMReferences
Amphanthong, P. & Busababodhin, P. (2015). Forecasting PM10 in the Upper Northern Area of Thailand with Grey System Theory, Burapa Science Journal, 20(1), 15-24. (in Thai)
Cao, M., Dang, Y. and Mi, C. (2006). An Improvement on Calculation of Absolute Degree of Grey Incidence, 2006 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Taipei, 2006, 452-454.
Julong, D. (1989). Introduction to Grey System Theory. The Journal of Grey System, 1(1), 1-24.
Radars Investor. (2016). What is GDP? How has it happened? What is important for Investor?. [Online]. Retrieved from https://aommoney.com/stories/17118 (in Thai)
Shen, X., Ou, L., Chen, X., Zhang, X. and Tan, X. (2013). The Application of the Grey Disaster Model to Forecast Epidemic Peaks of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever in China. PLOS ONE, 8(8), 1-10.
Tiptus, P. (2010). Economic Crisis in 1997- 2009: alternative and survival of Architect in Thailand. Academic Journal of Architecture. 1, December, 2010, 1-12. (in Thai)
Xie, N. and Liu, S. (2009). Discrete grey forecasting model and its optimization. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 33(2), 1173-1186.
Cao, M., Dang, Y. and Mi, C. (2006). An Improvement on Calculation of Absolute Degree of Grey Incidence, 2006 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Taipei, 2006, 452-454.
Julong, D. (1989). Introduction to Grey System Theory. The Journal of Grey System, 1(1), 1-24.
Radars Investor. (2016). What is GDP? How has it happened? What is important for Investor?. [Online]. Retrieved from https://aommoney.com/stories/17118 (in Thai)
Shen, X., Ou, L., Chen, X., Zhang, X. and Tan, X. (2013). The Application of the Grey Disaster Model to Forecast Epidemic Peaks of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever in China. PLOS ONE, 8(8), 1-10.
Tiptus, P. (2010). Economic Crisis in 1997- 2009: alternative and survival of Architect in Thailand. Academic Journal of Architecture. 1, December, 2010, 1-12. (in Thai)
Xie, N. and Liu, S. (2009). Discrete grey forecasting model and its optimization. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 33(2), 1173-1186.
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2018-08-09
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Research Article
