A simple lattice model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Bangkok, Thailand
Abstract
In this work, we study the epidemic dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease by using an epidemic model on a two-dimensional square lattice. The population in this model is divided into three groups, i.e., babies (0-5 years old), children and young people (6-22 years old), and adult (over 22 years old). Each person on lattice can be susceptible (), Infected () or recovered () states. The person who is in or states could move to one of its four nearest neighbor sites, if it is not occupied by another person. This movement depend on transition probability. We investigated the influence of transmission probability, recovery rate and inverse mobility. The result showed when the transmission probability increases the infected people was increased, while the recovery rate increases the infected people was decreased. The infected numbers increase when the inverse mobility () decreases. The results of model can used to estimate the number of infected compared to epidemic database. Moreover, this model may be used to predict the epidemic of this disease. Keywords: hand foot and mouth disease, transition probability, inverse mobility, transmission probabilityReferences
Bureau of Epidemiology, DDC, MPH. (2016). Hand, foot and mouth disease. Retrieved September 1, 2016, from http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/surdata/disease.php?dcontent=old&ds=71
Fierro, A. and Liccardo, A. (2011). A simple stochastic lattice gas model for H1N1 pandemic. Application to
the Italian epidemiological data. The European Physical Journal E, 34(11), 1-6.
Fournié, G., Guitian, J., Desvaux, S., Cuong, V. C., Pfeiffer, D. U., Mangtani, P., Ghani, A. C. (2013).
Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(22), 9177-9182.
Keeling, M.J. and Rohani, P. (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton,NJ:
Princeton University Press.
Liccardo, A. and Fierro, A. (2013). A Lattice Model for Influenza Spreading. PLoS ONE, 8(5), 1-11.
National Statistical Office, Thailand. (2015). Population by age group, Bangkok, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2016, from http://stat.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/upstat_age_disp.php
World Health Organization. (2012). Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (Fact sheet). Retrieved August 30, 2016, from http://www.wpro.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_10072012_HFMD/en/
Fierro, A. and Liccardo, A. (2011). A simple stochastic lattice gas model for H1N1 pandemic. Application to
the Italian epidemiological data. The European Physical Journal E, 34(11), 1-6.
Fournié, G., Guitian, J., Desvaux, S., Cuong, V. C., Pfeiffer, D. U., Mangtani, P., Ghani, A. C. (2013).
Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(22), 9177-9182.
Keeling, M.J. and Rohani, P. (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton,NJ:
Princeton University Press.
Liccardo, A. and Fierro, A. (2013). A Lattice Model for Influenza Spreading. PLoS ONE, 8(5), 1-11.
National Statistical Office, Thailand. (2015). Population by age group, Bangkok, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2016, from http://stat.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/upstat_age_disp.php
World Health Organization. (2012). Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (Fact sheet). Retrieved August 30, 2016, from http://www.wpro.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_10072012_HFMD/en/
Downloads
Published
2017-09-07
Issue
Section
บทความวิจัยจากการประชุมวิชาการระดับชาติ"วิทยาศาสตร์วิจัย"ครั้งที่ 9
