Extreme Value Modeling for the Rate of Influenza Patients in the Northeast of Thailand
Abstract
Influenza is a contagious disease with high transmissibility to spread around Thailand. Recently, the considerable morbidity and mortality of Influenza presents an enormous burden on Thailand public health. Especially, the rate of influenza infective in the Northeast of Thailand has been continuingly increaed. Therefore, we develop statistical models using Extreme Value Theory (EVT); the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD) in non-stationary process, where is location parameter () and scale parameter () depending on the time. We forecast to the probability of outbreak of highly pathogenic influenza in the Northeast of Thailand by using the incidence data of highly pathogenic influenza of 20 provinces in the Northeast of Thailand from January 2003 to December 2015 which are collected from the Data center bureau of epidemiology department of disease control ministry of public health. The package “extRemes” in R programing is used to analyze data and model. The results show that in the Northeast of Thailand has three provinces that should be monitored for influenza in the future includes Nakhon Ratchasima, Nakhon Phanom, and Bung Kan Because there is the return level estimate in 5 years, 10 years, and 20 years has highest is the first three. The results of this analysis can be applied to public health planning to cope with influenza events in each of provinces in the Northeast of Thailand. Keywords : extreme value theory, generalized extreme value distribution, non-stationary process, influenzaReferences
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Suttachana, S., Kaewnokkao, W., Suangtoh, P., Sayumpoorujinan, S., & Kongyoo, S. (2012). Forecasting the Occurrence of Influenza in Thailand in year 2012. Retrieved September 21, 2016, from http://www.inter
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articledetail.asp?id=311
Epidemiology Department of Disease Control Ministry of Public Health (2016). The Report on the Disease Surveillance System 506. Retrieved March 17, 2016, from http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/d506_1/ds_wk2pdf.php?ds=15&yr=58
Thomas, M., Lemaitre, M., Wilson, ML., Viboud, C., Yordanov, Y., Wackernagel, H., & Carrat, F. (2016). Applications of Extreme Value Theory in Public Health. PLoS ONE, 11(7).
Seesomboon, N., Sayrat, W., & Tachina, P. (2013). Forecasting the Occurrence of Influenza in 8 provinces in the Northern of Thailand in year 2014. Retrieved September 21, 2016, from http://www.interfetpthailand.net/forecast/files/report_2014/report_2014_no14.pdf
Sinsomboonthong, S. (2015). Mathematical Statistics 2. Bangkok: Jamjureeproduct.
Suttachana, S., Kaewnokkao, W., Suangtoh, P., Sayumpoorujinan, S., & Kongyoo, S. (2012). Forecasting the Occurrence of Influenza in Thailand in year 2012. Retrieved September 21, 2016, from http://www.interfetpthailand.netforecastfilesreport_2012report_2012_11_no20.pdf
Ueawaragun, P. (2010). Influenza. Retrieved October 6, 2016, from http://www.si.mahidol.ac.th/sidoctor/e-pl/articledetail.asp?id=311
Chanwirat, V., Gankan, A., & Chimin, M. (2015). The Report of Forecasting and Health risk in Influenza cases in year 2016. Retrieved October 21, 2016, from http://odpc11.ddc.moph.go.thinewsdata8pic482.pdf
Chen, J., Lei, X., Zhang, L., & Peng, B. (2015). Using Extreme Value Theory Approaches to Forecast the Probability of Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Influenza in Zhejiang, China. PLoS ONE, 10(2).
Coles, S., & Nadaraja, S. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Great Britain:
Springer-Varlag London Limited.
Epidemiology Department of Disease Control Ministry of Public Health (2016). The Report on the Disease Surveillance System 506. Retrieved March 17, 2016, from http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/d506_1/
ds_wk2pdf.php?ds=15&yr=58
Thomas, M., Lemaitre, M., Wilson, ML., Viboud, C., Yordanov, Y., Wackernagel, H., & Carrat, F. (2016).
Applications of Extreme Value Theory in Public Health. PLoS ONE, 11(7).
Seesomboon, N., Sayrat, W., & Tachina, P. (2013). Forecasting the Occurrence of Influenza in 8 provinces in the Northern of Thailand in year 2014. Retrieved September 21, 2016, from http://www.interfetpthailand.net/
forecast/files/report_2014/report_2014_no14.pdf
Sinsomboonthong, S. (2015). Mathematical Statistics 2. Bangkok: Jamjureeproduct.
Suttachana, S., Kaewnokkao, W., Suangtoh, P., Sayumpoorujinan, S., & Kongyoo, S. (2012). Forecasting the Occurrence of Influenza in Thailand in year 2012. Retrieved September 21, 2016, from http://www.inter
fetpthailand.netforecastfilesreport_2012report_2012_11_no20.pdf
Ueawaragun, P. (2010). Influenza. Retrieved October 6, 2016, from http://www.si.mahidol.ac.th/sidoctor/e-pl/
articledetail.asp?id=311
Epidemiology Department of Disease Control Ministry of Public Health (2016). The Report on the Disease Surveillance System 506. Retrieved March 17, 2016, from http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/d506_1/ds_wk2pdf.php?ds=15&yr=58
Thomas, M., Lemaitre, M., Wilson, ML., Viboud, C., Yordanov, Y., Wackernagel, H., & Carrat, F. (2016). Applications of Extreme Value Theory in Public Health. PLoS ONE, 11(7).
Seesomboon, N., Sayrat, W., & Tachina, P. (2013). Forecasting the Occurrence of Influenza in 8 provinces in the Northern of Thailand in year 2014. Retrieved September 21, 2016, from http://www.interfetpthailand.net/forecast/files/report_2014/report_2014_no14.pdf
Sinsomboonthong, S. (2015). Mathematical Statistics 2. Bangkok: Jamjureeproduct.
Suttachana, S., Kaewnokkao, W., Suangtoh, P., Sayumpoorujinan, S., & Kongyoo, S. (2012). Forecasting the Occurrence of Influenza in Thailand in year 2012. Retrieved September 21, 2016, from http://www.interfetpthailand.netforecastfilesreport_2012report_2012_11_no20.pdf
Ueawaragun, P. (2010). Influenza. Retrieved October 6, 2016, from http://www.si.mahidol.ac.th/sidoctor/e-pl/articledetail.asp?id=311
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Published
2017-09-15
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Research Article
