Forecasting of Factory Pineapple Prices with Box-Jenkins Method

Abstract

The objective of this study was to construct the appropriate forecasting model of factory pineapple price with Box-Jenkins method. Data was gathered 106 values from the Office of Agricultural Economics during January, 2007 to October, 2015 and then divided to 2 sets. The first set contained 100 values since January, 2007 to April, 2015 for constructing the forecasting models. The second set consisted of 6 values since May to October, 2015 for comparing accuracy of the forecasting values with the 3 criterions; the root mean squared error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percent error. The study findings indicated the most accurate forecasting model was ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 Key words : factory pineapple price, Box-Jenkins method