Cost-Effectiveness of Optimal Control Strategies to Control the Number of E-Cigarette Users among Teenagers in Thailand using Mathematical Model
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to propose an SIGR mathematical model representing the behaviour of e-cigarettes use among teenagers in Thailand and to investigate the optimal control strategies of the model. The population in this study is divided into four compartments: those at risk of smoking cigarettes and e-cigarettes, cigarette smoking group, e-cigarette smoking group and those who quit smoking permanently. Our goal is to find the best strategy that reduces the number of e-smokers while minimizing the cost of the control measures. We use three control measures which are e-cigarette smoking prevention campaign, tax increasing on cigarettes, and education programs on the dangers of both types of cigarettes. The results show that the increasing tax on cigarettes does not reduce the number of e-cigarette smokers, but the number of the e-cigarettes is increased. This is because reducing the rate of smoking cigarettes will increase the chance of individuals deciding to smoke e-cigarettes as an alternative. Moreover, cost-effectiveness analysis is performed using incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The research shows e-cigarette smoking prevention campaign is the optimal control strategy and the most cost-effective of all strategies considered in this study. Keywords : mathematical modeling ; e-cigarette control ; optimal control ; cost-effectiveness analysisReferences
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Master of Arts Program in Corporate Communication Management, Faculty of Journalism and Mass Communication, Thammasat University. (in Thai)
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Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Research, Implementation, and Education of
Mathematics and Sciences (ICRIEMS 2020). (pp. 323-328). Atlantis Press.
Pang, L., Liu, S., Zhang, X., & Tian, T. (2019). The Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Optimal Strategy of the
Tobacco Control. Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, 2019, Article ID 8189270.
Piyawan, B., Pavana, M., & Piyachat, B. (2019). E-Cigarettes Behavior and Smoking Cessation Behavior of Youth
in Higher Education Institute, Bangkok. Journal of Humanities and Development, 11(22), 111-127. (in
Thai)
Saowaluk, M., Pornnapa, H. & Rungrat, S. (2018). Factors Related to Smoking Initiation among Female Vocational
Students in Chachoengsao Province. Journal of Public Health Nursing, 41(4), 271-284. (in Thai)
Verma, V. (2020). Optimal control analysis of a mathematical model on smoking. Modeling Earth Systems and
Environment, 6(1), 2535-2542.
Werner, AK., Koumans, EH., Chatham-Stephens, K., Salvatore, PP., Armatas, C., Byers, P., Clark, CR., Ghinai, I.,
Holzbauer, SM., Navarette, KA., Danielson, ML., Ellington, S., Moritz, ED., Petersen, EE., Kiernan, EA., Baldwin, GT., Briss, P., Jones, CM., King, BA., Krishnasamy V, Rose, DA., & Reagan-Steiner, S., (2020). Lung Injury Response Mortality Working Group. Hospitalizations and Deaths Associated with EVALI. The New England Journal of Medicine, 382(17), 1589-1598.
with Specific Saturated Incidence Rate. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2018. Article ID 5949303.
Diekmann O, Heesterbeek JA & Roberts MG. (2010). The construction of next-generation matrices for
compartmental epidemic models. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 7(47), 873-85.
Edward, S., Shaban, N., & Mureithi, E. (2020). Optimal Control of Shigellosis with Cost-Effective Strategies.
Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, 2020, Article ID 9732687.
Harvim, P., Zhang, H., Georgescu, P. & Zhang, L. (2021). Cigarette smoking on college campuses: an epidemical
modelling approach. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing, 65, 515–540.
Juree, U., Titiporn, G., Seranee, J. & Vilailak, H. (2015). Meta synthesis of preventive factors for cigarette smoking
among Thai youths. Disease Control Journal, 41(4), 271-284. (in Thai)
Miech, R., Johnston, L., O’Malley, PM., Bachman, JG. & Patrick, ME. (2019). Trends in Adolescent Vaping, 2017-
2019. New England Journal of Medicine, 381(15), 1490-1491.
Miech R., Leventhal A., Johnston L., O’Malley PM., Patrick ME. & Barrington-Trimis J. (2021). Trends in Use and
Perceptions of Nicotine Vaping Among US Youth From 2017 to 2020. JAMA Pediatr, 175(2),185–190.
Ministry of Public Health (2021). News form Department of Disease Control. Retrieved May 26, 2021, from
https://ddc.moph.go.th/brc/news.php?news=13087&deptcode=brc (in Thai)
Nuttapon, R. (2017). Perception attitude and behavior towards electronic cigarette. Master’s Thesis, Degree of
Master of Arts Program in Corporate Communication Management, Faculty of Journalism and Mass Communication, Thammasat University. (in Thai)
Ilmayasinta, N., Anjarsari, E. & Moh W. Ahdi, (2021). Optimal Control for Smoking Epidemic Model. In
Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Research, Implementation, and Education of
Mathematics and Sciences (ICRIEMS 2020). (pp. 323-328). Atlantis Press.
Pang, L., Liu, S., Zhang, X., & Tian, T. (2019). The Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Optimal Strategy of the
Tobacco Control. Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, 2019, Article ID 8189270.
Piyawan, B., Pavana, M., & Piyachat, B. (2019). E-Cigarettes Behavior and Smoking Cessation Behavior of Youth
in Higher Education Institute, Bangkok. Journal of Humanities and Development, 11(22), 111-127. (in
Thai)
Saowaluk, M., Pornnapa, H. & Rungrat, S. (2018). Factors Related to Smoking Initiation among Female Vocational
Students in Chachoengsao Province. Journal of Public Health Nursing, 41(4), 271-284. (in Thai)
Verma, V. (2020). Optimal control analysis of a mathematical model on smoking. Modeling Earth Systems and
Environment, 6(1), 2535-2542.
Werner, AK., Koumans, EH., Chatham-Stephens, K., Salvatore, PP., Armatas, C., Byers, P., Clark, CR., Ghinai, I.,
Holzbauer, SM., Navarette, KA., Danielson, ML., Ellington, S., Moritz, ED., Petersen, EE., Kiernan, EA., Baldwin, GT., Briss, P., Jones, CM., King, BA., Krishnasamy V, Rose, DA., & Reagan-Steiner, S., (2020). Lung Injury Response Mortality Working Group. Hospitalizations and Deaths Associated with EVALI. The New England Journal of Medicine, 382(17), 1589-1598.
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Published
2022-09-07
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