The Probability Distribution of Daily and Monthly Streamflow in the Chi-River Basin
Abstract
This research purposes to find the probability distribution of daily and monthly streamflow in the Chi river basin and to create Flow duration curve (FDC) and Flow duration curve period of record (FDCPOR) in the Chi river basin. By using data the daily drainage rate through the dam from 2012 to 2019 from Middle Chi Operation and Maintenance Project and Lower Chi, and Lower Saebai Operation and Maintenance Project. There are 6 dams, which consist of Chonabod dam, Mahasarakham dam, Wang-Yang dam, Roi-et dam, Yasothorn dam and Tadnoi dam. For monthly data, 3 distributions are used in the analysis: generalized pareto distribution, log-normal distribution and log-logistics distribution and for daily data, 3 distributions are used in the analysis: generalized extreme value distribution, log-normal distribution and log-logistics distribution. parameters of each distribution are estimated by maximum likelihood method (MLE). As well as, the daily and monthly data are using to estimate the return level at various times. The analysis results for comparing FDC curve and FDCPOR curve through the distribution of daily and monthly drainage flow data by method of Nash-sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), it was found that, log-nomal distribution was suitable for most dams and follow with generalized pareto distribution, log-logistics distribution and generalized extreme value distribution, respectively. Based on return level 2-years 5-years 10-years 15-years 25-years 50-years and 100-years, for daily and monthly drainage flow data showed that return level increased for each return period increasing all 6 dams. Keywords : flow duration curve ; streamflow ; generalized pareto distribution ; generalized extreme value DistributionReferences
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http://mekhala.dwr.go.th/knowledge-basin-chee.php. (in Thai)
Elena Ridolfi, Hemendra Kumar,and András Bárdossy. (2018). A methodology to estimate flow duration curves at
partially ungauged basins. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
LeBoutillier, D. V., and P. R. Waylen. (1993). A stochastic model of flowduration curves. Water Resour. Res, 29(10), 3535-3541.
Piyapatr Busababodhin and Arun Kaewmun. (2015). Extreme Values Statistics. The Journal of KMUTNB., Vol. 25,
No. 2, May. - Aug. 2015. (in Thai)
Royal Irrigation Department. (2017). Retrieved October 27, 2019, from
http://www.rid.go.th/main/_data/docs/60/RID-Annual-2017.pdf. (in Thai)
Thawat Nanon. (2017). Using Value-Risk for Evaluating Business Capital: Case Study Of Non-Life Insurrance. An Independent Study Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master Science (Applied Statistics) Department of Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science and Technology Thammasat University. (in Thai)
Varawoot Vudhivanich. (2010). Accuracy analysis of models using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and R2. Department of Irrigation Engineering Faculty of Engineering Kamphaeng Saen, Kasetsart University. (in Thai)
Vogel, R. M. and Fennessey, N. M. (1994). Flow Duration Curves I: New Interpretation and Confidence Intervals,J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE,120, 485-504.
Worravit Joonlakong. (2019). Model of diabetic rates for treatment in Khon Kaen province.
Chiang Mai University. (in Thai)
streamflow in the United States. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Archfield, S. (2009). A.Estimation of continuous daily streamflow at ungaged locations in southern New England,
PhD dissertation,Tufts University.
Areeya Rittima (2018). EGCE 323 Hydrology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty of Engineering Mahidol University. (in Thai)
Coles. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag London.
Data collection and data analysis operations 25 Basin Basin Information System Development Project and Drought Flood Modeling Project. Retrieved October 25, 2019, from http://mekhala.dwr.go.th/download/basin/04chee.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2yy 6NrEeX5Nyrt gxqitbIGAiVMvBXba__mfU3ZDyExYVQfCutbxD0k45Y. (in Thai)
Department of Local Administration Ministry of Interior.and Faculty of Engineering Kamphaeng Saen, Kasetsart
University. (2005). Standard for Water Resources Management. (in Thai)
Department of Water Resources. (2006). Retrieved October 25, 2019, from
http://mekhala.dwr.go.th/knowledge-basin-chee.php. (in Thai)
Elena Ridolfi, Hemendra Kumar,and András Bárdossy. (2018). A methodology to estimate flow duration curves at
partially ungauged basins. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
LeBoutillier, D. V., and P. R. Waylen. (1993). A stochastic model of flowduration curves. Water Resour. Res, 29(10), 3535-3541.
Piyapatr Busababodhin and Arun Kaewmun. (2015). Extreme Values Statistics. The Journal of KMUTNB., Vol. 25,
No. 2, May. - Aug. 2015. (in Thai)
Royal Irrigation Department. (2017). Retrieved October 27, 2019, from
http://www.rid.go.th/main/_data/docs/60/RID-Annual-2017.pdf. (in Thai)
Thawat Nanon. (2017). Using Value-Risk for Evaluating Business Capital: Case Study Of Non-Life Insurrance. An Independent Study Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master Science (Applied Statistics) Department of Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science and Technology Thammasat University. (in Thai)
Varawoot Vudhivanich. (2010). Accuracy analysis of models using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and R2. Department of Irrigation Engineering Faculty of Engineering Kamphaeng Saen, Kasetsart University. (in Thai)
Vogel, R. M. and Fennessey, N. M. (1994). Flow Duration Curves I: New Interpretation and Confidence Intervals,J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE,120, 485-504.
Worravit Joonlakong. (2019). Model of diabetic rates for treatment in Khon Kaen province.
Chiang Mai University. (in Thai)
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Published
2021-06-01
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Research Article
