The Electricity Consumption Forecast in Upper Northern of Thailand

Abstract

The purposes of this research are to: 1) quantify the ratio of electricity consumption in 2010, 2013, and 2016, 2) forecast the expansion of urban and buildup areas and  3) predict the electricity consumption in 9 provinces of upper northern: Chiang Mai; Chiang Rai; Lamphun; Lampang; Phrae; Nan; Phayao; Mae Hong Son and Uttaradit in 2022. Electricity consumption statistics, existing urban and build up areas are conducted to meet the ratio of electricity consumption in each period. According to urban and build up areas expansion by using CA-Markov model, the land use data during 2010 - 2013 is developed in order to forecast land use in 2016. The overall accuracy of the model and land use from the Land Development Department in 2016 is 91.65% and kappa coefficient is 83.54%. As for the electricity demand forecasting in 2016 by CA-Markov model, it illustrates that the demand is 10,888.76 GW/h. The correlation coefficient between the electricity forecasting and the existing electricity consumption of 2016 is 0.999849. It can be said that the relationship between 2 variables is very high. Concerning electricity consumption prediction in 2016 by using linear equations, which calculates the electricity consumption from the statistics annual report during 2010 – 2015, it demonstrates that the electricity consumption is 8,556.44 GW/h. The correlation coefficient with electricity consumption in 2016 is 0.999975, which the relationship of two variables is very high. Regarding the electricity demand forecasting to 2022 by CA-Markov model, it is 18,935.82 GW/h. Meanwhile, the electricity consumption prediction with linear equations to 2022 is 10,327.56 GW/h. Keywords: CA-Markov model, Linear equation, Electricity forecast, Land use change