Selection of Appropriate Forecasting Model for the Grain Price of Long Oryza Sativa
Abstract
The objective of this study was to construct and select the appropriate forecasting model for the grain price of long Oryza sativa. The data gathered from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics during January, 2005 to March, 2018 of 159 values were used and divided into 2 sets. The first set had 153 values from January, 2005 to September, 2017 for constructing the forecasting models by Box-Jenkins method and combined forecasting method. The second set had 6 values from October, 2017 to March, 2018 for comparing accuracy of forecasted models via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. The study results indicated that the most accurate method derived from both forecasting methods was Box-Jenkins method and the forecasting model was where the mean absolute percentage error was 3.5815 and the root mean squared error was 439.9647. Keywords: Oryza sativa, Box-Jenkins Method, combined forecasting method, mean absolute percentage error, root mean squared error.References
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Thanapala, D., Charoensiri, T. & Soponpimol, C. (2016). Forecasting of Factory Pineapple Prices with Box-Jenkins Method. Burapha Science Journal, 21(1), 110-118. (in Thai)
Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M. & Reinsel, G.C. (1994). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. (3rd ed.).
New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Jarumus, W., Limunggura, T. & Mankeb, P. (2014). Factors Affecting Rice Farmer Returns of The Paddy Mortgage Scheme, Samutprakan Province. King Mongkut’s Agricultural Journal, 32(2), 26-31. (in Thai)
Keerativibool, W. (2014). Forecasting the Export Quantity of Rubber Compound. Srinakharinwirot Science Journal, 30(2), 41-56. (in Thai)
Ket-iam, S. (2005). Forecasting Technique. (2nd ed.). Songkhla: Thaksin University. (in Thai)
Manmin, M. (2006). Time Series and Forecasting. (1st ed.). Bangkok: Foreprinting. (in Thai)
Montgomery, D.C., Peck, E.A. & Vining, G.G. (2006). Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. (4th ed.).
New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Office of Agricultural Economics. (2018). Stickyrice Prices. Retrieved August 31, 2018, from http://oldweb.oae.go.th/tableofpriceindex.html
Riansut, W. & Nisan, N. (2017). Forecasting the Export Volume of Processed Chicken. Naresuan University Journal: Science and Technology, 25(2), 140-152. (in Thai)
Riansut, W. & Thongrit, K. (2017). Forecasting the Prices of Field Corn in Thailand. RMUTP Research Journal, 11(1), 1-14. (in Thai)
Sansaketfarm. (2018). Stickyrice. Retrieved September 1, 2018, from https://www.sansaket.com/ฟาร์ม/ข้าว/ไทย-ข้าวเหนียว-ข้าวขาว-ขัดสี-เมล็ดยาว (in Thai)
Thairathonline. (2014). Farmer Bruised! Rice Prices Fall – Drought. Retrieved September 1, 2018, from http://www.thairath.co.th/content/413743 (in Thai)
Thanapala, D., Charoensiri, T. & Soponpimol, C. (2016). Forecasting of Factory Pineapple Prices with Box-Jenkins Method. Burapha Science Journal, 21(1), 110-118. (in Thai)
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Published
2018-12-07
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Research Article
