Dynamic Modeling for the Investigation of Changes in Land Uses on Streamflow in the Upper Tha Chin Watershed
Abstract
The objective of this study was to apply a dynamic modeling for the investigation of changes in land uses on streamflow in the Upper Tha Chin Watershed (UTCW). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied in order to estimate the amount of the streamflow from land utilization from January 2013 to December 2014 as presented (Scenario 1). The reliability of the model was calibrated with the observed data from two hydrologic stations by adjusting the coefficient of the key parameters by using SWAT CUP program. The goodness of the calibration results were assessed based on the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and mean squared error (MSE) along with simulating the impact of land utilization in the year 2020 (Scenario 2). The results obtained from the SWAT model showed that the UTCW area was 5,253.96 km2 with a stream length of 1,906 km, 14 sub-watersheds and 286 hydrological response units (HRUs). The Scenario 1 indicated that the streamflow of the UTCW was 374.74 Mm3/year. The simulation of Scenario 2, forecasting the expected land use change in year 2020, showed that the amount of the streamflow decreased to 65.09 Mm3/year, when compared with Scenario 1, because of decreasing in forest-deciduous and increasing in field crops. Keywords : dynamic modeling, land use, streamflow, Upper Tha Chin WatershedReferences
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Guan, D., Li, H., Inohae, T., Su, W., Nagaie, T., & Hokao, K. (2011). Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model. Ecological Modelling, 222, 3761-3772.
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Rutherford, G., Guisan, A., & Zimmermann, N. (2007). Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes. Journal of Applied Ecology, 44(2), 414-424.
Sinha, P., & Kimar, L. (2013). Markov land cover change modeling using Pairs of time-series satellite images. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 79, 1037-1051.
Xiaobo, J., Huang, C.H., & Ruan, F. (2008). Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Runoff and Sediment in the Cedar Creek Watershed, St. Joseph River, Indiana, United States. Journal of Mountain Science, 5, 113-121.
Yang, J., Reichert, P., Abbaspour, K.C., Xia, J., & Yang, H. (2008). Comparing uncertainty analysis techniques for a SWAT application to the Chaohe Basin in China. Journal of Hydrology, 358 (1-2), 1-23.
Abbaspour, K.C., Johnson, C.A., & Van Genuchten, M.T. (2004). Estimating uncertain flow and transport parameters using a sequential uncertainty fitting procedure. Vadose Zone Journal, 3 (4), 1340-1352.
Arnold, J.G., Moriasi, D.N., Gassman, P.W., Abbaspour, K.C., White, M.J., Srinivasan, R., Santhi, C., Harmel, R.D., Van Griensven, A., Van Liew, M.W., Kannan, N., & Jha, M.K. (2012). Swat: model use, calibration, and validation. Transactions of the Asabe, 55 (4), 1491-1508.
Cao, W., Bowden, W.B., Davie, T., & Fenemor, A. (2009). Modeling Impact of Land Cover Change on Critical on Critical Water Resources in the Motueka River Catchments, New Zealand. Water Resources Management, 23, 137-151.
Donigain, A.S.Jr. (2002). Watershed Model Calibration and Validation-The HSPF Experience. AQUA TERRA Consultants, 2685 Marine Way, Suite 1314. Mountain View. CA 94043.
Eastman, J.R. (2009). Idrisi Taiga, Guide to GIS and Image Processing, Manual Version 16.02. Clark University. (pp. 342).
Guan, D., Li, H., Inohae, T., Su, W., Nagaie, T., & Hokao, K. (2011). Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model. Ecological Modelling, 222, 3761-3772.
Land Development Department. (2002). Evaluation of the Universal Soil Loss in Thailand. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. Bangkok. (in Thai)
Land Development Department. (2010). Soil Resources Survey and Research Division. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. Bangkok. (in Thai)
Land Development Department. (2014). Geographic Information System Soil and Land use. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. Bangkok. (in Thai)
Nash, J.E. & Sutcliffe, J.V. (1970). River Flow Forecasting Through Conceptual Models, Part 1: A Discussion of Principles. Journal of Hydrology, 10 (3), 282-290.
Nipon, T. (2006). Watershed Management and Environment System Modelling. Forestry Research Center, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Nopparmard, N. (2004). Effects of Land Use Patterns on Surface Water Quality of Middle-Lower Tha-Chin River. Master of Science (Environmental Science), Kasetsart University, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Oeurng, C., Sauvage, S., & Sanchez-Perez, J.M. (2011). Assessment of hydrology, sediment and particulate organic carbon yield in a large agricultural catchment using the SWAT model. Journal of Hydrology,
401 (3-4), 145-153.
Oning, V. (2008). Study on Water Quality and Heavy Metals in Water, Sediment and some Aquatic Plants in the Tha Chin River. Master of Science (Marine Science), Kasetsart University, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Pinglot, F. (2012). Mountainous River Stream Flow Modeling Via ArcSWAT: A Challenge, Toulouse.
Pollution Control Department. (2002). Report on Thailand's Pollution Situation. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Bangkok. (in Thai)
Ross, S.M. (2010). Chapter 4 - Markov chains, in: S.M. Ross (Ed.), Introduction to Probability Models (Tenth Edition), tenth edition, Academic Press, Boston. (pp. 191-290).
Royal Irrigation Department. (2014). Regional Irrigation office, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Bangkok. (in Thai)
Rutherford, G., Guisan, A., & Zimmermann, N. (2007). Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes. Journal of Applied Ecology, 44(2), 414-424.
Sinha, P., & Kimar, L. (2013). Markov land cover change modeling using Pairs of time-series satellite images. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 79, 1037-1051.
Xiaobo, J., Huang, C.H., & Ruan, F. (2008). Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Runoff and Sediment in the Cedar Creek Watershed, St. Joseph River, Indiana, United States. Journal of Mountain Science, 5, 113-121.
Yang, J., Reichert, P., Abbaspour, K.C., Xia, J., & Yang, H. (2008). Comparing uncertainty analysis techniques for a SWAT application to the Chaohe Basin in China. Journal of Hydrology, 358 (1-2), 1-23.
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Published
2017-05-11
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