Residual Modification of Forecasting with Fourier Series
Abstract
The objective of this research was to study the residual modification by Fourier series. The data used in this study are the number of arrival and departure passengers at the Ubon Ratchathani international airport. Two models namely Grey model GM(1,1) and SARIMA by Box-Jenkins method were generated to investigate. Then the residuals of prediction were modified by Fourier series. From the result, it were concluded that the models improved by Fourier series are much more precision. Keywords : Grey model, Box-Jengins, Fourier Residual ModificationReferences
Amphanthong, P. & Busababodhin, P. (2015). Forecasting PM10 in the Upper Northern Area of Thailand with Grey System Theory, Burapa Science Journal, 20(1), 15-24. (in Thai)
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G.C. (1994). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 3rd edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Chia, N.W. & Van, T.P. (2014). An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 11, 322-327.
Deng, J. (1982). Control Problems of Grey Systems. Systems & Control Letters, 1(5), 288-294.
Department of Civil Aviation (DCA), Retrieved December 20, 2017 from https://minisite.airports.go.th/ubonratcha thani/
Ma, H., & Zhang, Z. (2009). Grey Prediction with Markov-Chain for crude oil production and consumption in China. Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing, 56, 551–561.
Manmin, M. (2006). Time Series and Forecasting. 3rd edition. Bangkok: Prdkaipreuk Publisher. (in Thai)
Nguyen, T. L., Shu, M. H., Huang, Y. F., & Hsu, B. M. (2013). Accurate Forecasting Models in Predicting the Inbound Tourism Demand in Vietnam. Journal of Statistics and Management Systems, 16(1), 25-43.
Noosen,P., Payakkapong, P. & Supapakorn, T. (2015). A Comparison of Quantity Production of Pertroleum forecasting models in Thailand. Thai Science and Technology Journal Thammasat University, 23(3), 377-384. (in Thai)
Saothayanun, L., Taweesakulvatchara, S., Kanjanasakda, Y, & Somrang, B. (2014). A Forecasting Methods for the Number of International Tourists in Thailand: Box-Jenkins method and Winter's Method. Thai Science and Technology Journal Thammasat University, 22(1), 89-98. (in Thai)
Techatanasombat, M. (2009). Forecasting Models for Air, Bus, and Rail Passenger Flows Between Chiang Mai and Bangkok. Thesis in Cevil Engineering, Chiang Mai University. (in Thai)
Tsaur, R. C. (2014). Residual Analysis using Fourier Series Transform in Fuzzy Time Series Model. Iranian Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 11(3), 43-54.
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G.C. (1994). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 3rd edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Chia, N.W. & Van, T.P. (2014). An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 11, 322-327.
Deng, J. (1982). Control Problems of Grey Systems. Systems & Control Letters, 1(5), 288-294.
Department of Civil Aviation (DCA), Retrieved December 20, 2017 from https://minisite.airports.go.th/ubonratcha thani/
Ma, H., & Zhang, Z. (2009). Grey Prediction with Markov-Chain for crude oil production and consumption in China. Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing, 56, 551–561.
Manmin, M. (2006). Time Series and Forecasting. 3rd edition. Bangkok: Prdkaipreuk Publisher. (in Thai)
Nguyen, T. L., Shu, M. H., Huang, Y. F., & Hsu, B. M. (2013). Accurate Forecasting Models in Predicting the Inbound Tourism Demand in Vietnam. Journal of Statistics and Management Systems, 16(1), 25-43.
Noosen,P., Payakkapong, P. & Supapakorn, T. (2015). A Comparison of Quantity Production of Pertroleum forecasting models in Thailand. Thai Science and Technology Journal Thammasat University, 23(3), 377-384. (in Thai)
Saothayanun, L., Taweesakulvatchara, S., Kanjanasakda, Y, & Somrang, B. (2014). A Forecasting Methods for the Number of International Tourists in Thailand: Box-Jenkins method and Winter's Method. Thai Science and Technology Journal Thammasat University, 22(1), 89-98. (in Thai)
Techatanasombat, M. (2009). Forecasting Models for Air, Bus, and Rail Passenger Flows Between Chiang Mai and Bangkok. Thesis in Cevil Engineering, Chiang Mai University. (in Thai)
Tsaur, R. C. (2014). Residual Analysis using Fourier Series Transform in Fuzzy Time Series Model. Iranian Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 11(3), 43-54.
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Published
2018-09-19
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Research Article
